Ebola Updates

Dec 20th-23rd new cases: Liberia – 86, Sierra Leone – 275, Guinea – 70. Rate: 108/day. Total: 19740

Liberia

Sierra Leone

Guinea (est. using 24th, 2612/1639)

Reported Deaths: 7699


For comparison, the previous 4-day periods:

  • Dec 16th-19th: 95/day
  • Dec 12th-15th: 87/day
  • Dec 8th-11th: 96/day
  • Dec 4th-7th: 102/day
  • Nov 30th-3rd: 128/day
  • Nov 26th-29th: 129/day
  • Nov 22nd-25th: 129/day
  • Nov 18th-21st: 120/day
  • Nov 14th-17th: 122/day
  • Nov 10th-13th: 165/day
  • Nov 6th-9th: 185/day
  • Nov 2nd-5th: 115/day
  • Oct 29th-1st: 115/day
  • Oct 25th-28th: 146/day
  • Oct 21st-24th: 107/day
  • Oct 17th-20th: 168/day
  • Oct 13th-16th: 127/day
  • Oct 9th-12th: 130/day
  • Oct 5th-8th: 132/day
  • Oct 1st-4th: 124/day
  • Sept 27th-30th: 138/day
  • Sept 23rd-26th: 129/day
  • Sept 19th-22nd: 137/day
  • Sept 15th-18th: 130/day
  • Sept 11th-14th: 124/day
  • Sept 7th-10th: 127/day
  • Sept 3rd-6th: 105/day
  • Aug 30th-2nd: 104/day
  • Aug 26th-29th: 101/day
  • Aug 22nd-25th: 101/day
  • Aug 18th-21st: 90/day
  • Aug 14th-17th: 51/day
  • … Either similar rate to 51/day or smaller for all earlier periods.

Notes:

  • All affected countries are included in the totals for reported cases and deaths. These are only the reported confirmed/probable/suspected cases. In addition, the reported deaths exclude at least 3000 known events that took place outside hospitals, which is especially true with respect to the numbers from Sierra Leone.
  • It appears that projections based off the reported numbers may have been significantly skewed upwards due to the reality that the reported numbers better reflected the increase in the response effort, and not the increase in the outbreak growth.
  • Guinea’s enduring caseload does not bode well for West Africa. It indicates that it is very difficult to actually eliminate the disease from an extensive region that has been thoroughly saturated with infections. The possibility of an endemic prevalence of Ebola until a vaccination is found, if found, does seem more and more likely.
  • The outbreak is still burning quite fiercely compared to historical outbreaks, requiring at most 5 days to eclipse the largest outbreaks of the past. West Africa does appear to be both containing and squeezing the magnitude of the outbreak, but the outbreak is still large enough to do significantly more damage. There is still no estimation of the on-going non-Ebola-related human cost due to the long-term collapse in medical services, slow down in the national economies, and strict isolation of numerous regions.

 

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Dan Mullin is an active writer and editor for the Pluto Daily who covered the 2014 Ebola Outbreak. Mullin attended the Wake Forest School of Medicine before leaving to pursue his lifelong science goal of allowing humans to live forever via a computer/brain transfer.