Ebola case-count increasing again in Guinea

STATUS: HEAVILY AFFECTED

SUMMARY
Guinea was the first nation to report cases in the current West African Ebola outbreak. Although new cases were declining from December, this has not been sustained. There continues to be significant community resistance in some areas to measures to control further spread.

In the last week (21 – 28 January) we have seen. . .

  • Increase in new cases in Guinea for the first time in 2015. Eight districts saw new ‘probable’ or confirmed cases. There were 30 new confirmed cases for the week, with some in Conakry but most of them in Forecariah.
  • Two areas reported cases for the first time in 21 days: Kissidougou and Macenta. Mali prefecture had its first-ever Ebola case. Mali is a district in northern Guinea, bordering Senegal. The patient there is a traveller from Liberia, which highlights the ease with which Ebola virus can cross international borders.
  • A point of concern is only about 30% of the nation’s new cases occurred in “registered” contacts of known cases. This shows that there are undetected chains of transmission. Of the 16 confirmed deaths, almost 20% occurred in the community, rather than in Ebola treatment units.
  • Currently, there are now 330 beds in five operational ETCs (in Conakry, Guéckédou, Macenta and N’zérékoré). The number of treatment centre beds required by the WHO is 490. In a week 80 new treatment beds have become operational.
Ebola Map
Information for map sourced from WHO Ebola Situation Report 28 Jan 2015.
Click image for larger map
Transmission active in:

Beyla
Boffa
Conakry
Coyah
Dubreka
Faranah
Forecariah
Kankan
Kindia
Kissidougou
Lola
Macenta
Mali
Nzerekore
TelimeleNo transmission in*:

Boke
Dabola
Dalaba
Dinguiraye
Gueckedou
Fria
Kerouane
Kouroussa
Pita
Siguiri
Yomou* No new cases reported for at least 21 days

See charts of cases

CASES Total: 2,921 clinical cases as of 26 January
Confirmed: 2,571 | Probable: 332 | Suspected: 18
Deaths: 1,911 (1,579 confirmed)
Source: WHO Situation Summary 29 January)

LATEST NEWS
30 January
In the latest World Health Organization situation summary data from 29 January, two confirmed cases and one new death was reported in Guinea.

28 January
The World Health Organization situation summary reports an increase in new cases in Guinea for the first time in 2015. Eight districts saw new ‘probable’ or confirmed cases. There were 30 new confirmed cases for the week, most of them in Forecariah. WHO reports that there are “high levels” of community resistance to Ebola response measures in this area.

Two areas reported cases for the first time in 21 days: Kissidougou and Macenta. Mali prefecture had its first-ever Ebola case. Mali is a district in northern Guinea, bordering Senegal. The patient there is a traveller from Liberia, which highlights the ease with which Ebola virus can cross international borders.

Only about 30% of the nation’s new cases occurred in “registered” contacts of known cases. This shows that there are undetected chains of transmission. Of the 16 confirmed deaths, almost 20% occurred in the community, rather than in Ebola treatment units.

24 January
The World Health Organization released another situation summary which reports cases to 20 January. Since the last update there were 3 confirmed cases and 1 confirmed death.

23 January
In the latest World Health Organization situation summary data, 3 confirmed cases and 3 new deaths were reported in Guinea on 19 January.

22 January
The latest World Health Organization (WHO) Situation Report shows that the number of new weekly confirmed cases continues to decrease, with new confirmed cases halving in 9 days. In the week to 18 January, there were 20 new confirmed cases reported compared to 45 the week prior. The worst affected areas are Dubreka, Conakry and Boffa. Kerouane prefecture has not had a case in over 21 days, while WHO reports transmission in Macenta within the past 21 days.

The number of treatment centre beds required by the WHO has been reduced from 655 a week ago to 490. In a week 80 new treatment beds have become operational.

19 January
The World Health Organization (WHO) has released a situation summary which reports there were 14 confirmed cases and 15 confirmed deaths in Guinea for the period 14 – 17 January. In a Guinea specific SitRep from 17 January, the WHO and Ministry of Health confirm several new prefectures have not reported any cases in the previous 21 days (Beyla, Dabola, Kouroussa, Macenta and Siguiri) while Boffa has reverted to active transmission.

HOSPITAL RESPONSE AND ISOLATION/TREATMENT CENTRES (ETCs)
As at 15 January, the country had opened 80 more ETC beds. There are now 330 beds in five operational ETCs (in Conakry, Guéckédou, Macenta and N’zérékoré). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that a total of 490 beds are required, revised down from 655 beds forecasted one week earlier. There is one Community Transit Centre with 8 beds operational in Siguri, with plans to open 62 more around the country.

See the World Health Organization interactive map of Ebola Treatment Centres for details on location, status and number of beds.

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Dan Mullin is an active writer and editor for the Pluto Daily who covered the 2014 Ebola Outbreak. Mullin attended the Wake Forest School of Medicine before leaving to pursue his lifelong science goal of allowing humans to live forever via a computer/brain transfer.